Analysis of PSLV

I attempted to share my latest analysis on TradingView, but the admins have done it again - my idea was blocked and hidden. For context PSLV is a physically-backed silver ETF.

Please note: It's not a financial advice. I am not in position to recommend any actions. I'm simply sharing my personal perspective on silver with the use of tools available to me.

17.07.2026

When I'm investing in silver I'm doing it by PSLV as it's backed by real metal. I've not done research if there is a better way as this seems to be easy and good enough.

Silver is after strong ride and I was hoping that it was the 3rd wave in the impulse. My expectation was to see one more wave 5 move. Unfortunatelly current correction is deeper than I was expecting from wave 4 and it complicate situation, as:
1. Price is still over end of wave 1 so even ortodoxic Elliot rules will accept it.
2. Potential wave 4 is too big in proportion to wave 1 for me.

Deep move could sugest that it's wave 2. Both clues are oposite to each others, but point 2. is triggering me to changing my opinion that last top could be bigger wave 1 and currently we are seeing a formation of wave 2 not wave 4, with such assumption I will try to find potencial entrance point.

Overbalance shows no suport or resistance that can stop this correction, but we can mark potencial 1:1 for C.

What other clues we can get:
- In this price area previously we had consolidation so it's an important price zone
- Wyckoff is showing volume support area
- It's optimal ending area of Elliot wave 2.

Multitimeframe RSI is not giving much clues. Chances that it will be a fast move down to 13$ just to get 1W RSI to 30 are IMO extreme low, so I would not count on RSI mutitimeframe signal soon (Maybe if that correction would take few more weeks).

Price range is still big so I'm setting only alert on crossing 17.25$ and final decision I will be making when price will be in that price range based on:
- Wyckoff Volume Formations
- Candle formations
- Volume

6.08.2026

I was hoping that the price would drop slightly, but this scenario has not materialized yet, and in fact, demand for silver has appeared, so I am currently considering the price increases as a correction of the downward movement, after which the price may return to the levels I am interested in.

23.08.2026

What if I made a classic mistake by analyzing a unprecise tracking vehicle instead of the underlying asset? At the end of the day, PSLV is just a silver ETF, so analyzing silver directly might provide much clearer signals. Let’s see what SI1! (Silver Futures) is telling us.

SI1! shows a clean correction following an impulse move, terminating at a logical level. While there is still room for a deeper pullback, the minimum structural requirements have already been met.

A textbook RSI setup at the low, followed by a textbook sweep that triggers a bullish RSI divergence. This looks really solid.

Multi-timeframe analysis shows RSI readings below 30 across all lower timeframes at this initial low, right before it gets swept.

I treat this signal as confluence for my other tools. I often find that while it highlights a key level, that level tends to get breached multiple times before the final bottom is in.

Don't be misled. During corrections in a weakening trend, this tool appears to act as a standalone leading signal, triggering right before the final move. Unfortunately, in a strong trend, it generates signals way too early at local tops, often far from the ultimate target

Now, let’s take a look at the levels that could cause issues for price on the way up. We have a few volume zones, but they were generated by significantly lower volume compared to what we can see at the top.

Wyckoff volume patterns aren't giving any clear signals yet. We're seeing tests to the upside getting broken (which typically indicate weakness), yet the price continues to rise.

The trend structure also looks good. In the 83.5–100 zone, expect some turbulence around the overbalance. But since this isn't an accelerating trend, the odds of making a new low here are lower.

All of the above suggests that although I picked the right asset, I ran my initial analysis on the wrong chart — and that train may have already left the station. Which is fine, too: it's never worth jumping onto a moving train, another one will come along.

Personally, though, I'm hoping silver pushes to a deeper low so that both charts line up (the signal I've been waiting for on PSLV will also show up).